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POLL: LARGE MAJORITY OF OBAMA 2008 VIRGINIA VOTERS WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2009 THOUGHT CREIGH DEEDS "WAS NOT PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH."
MANY WILL BASE THEIR 2010 VOTE ON WHETHER DEMS PASS PUBLIC OPTION.
The Research 2000 Virginia Poll was conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee from Nov. 5 through Nov. 6, 2009. A total of 800 voters (400 Democrats and 400 Independents) who voted for Barack Obama for President in 2008 but did not vote in the Nov. 2009 election were interviewed statewide by telephone. Margin of error is 3.5% overall, 5% for Democratic or Independent numbers specifically.
(Research 2000 also does polling for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Lexington Herald-Leader, Fort Wayne News Sentinel, South Bend Tribune, and Reno Gazette-Journal.)
| QUESTION: Would you say the 2009 Democratic candidate for Governor, Creigh Deeds, is too far to the left or not progressive enough? | |||
| NOT PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH | TOO FAR LEFT | NEITHER | |
| ALL | 61% | 12% | 27% |
| Men | 59% | 13% | 28% |
| Women | 63% | 11% | 26% |
| DEMOCRATS | 64% | 8% | 28% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 58% | 16% | 26% |
| White | 60% | 14% | 26% |
| Black | 63% | 9% | 28% |
| Hispanic | 61% | 11% | 28% |
| Other | 62% | 10% | 28% |
| 18-29 | 64% | 8% | 28% |
| 30-44 | 63% | 10% | 27% |
| 45-59 | 60% | 13% | 27% |
| 60+ | 58% | 16% | 26% |
| Nova | 63% | 11% | 26% |
| REST | 59% | 13% | 28% |
| QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans? (Wording of NYT poll) | |||
| FAVOR | OPPOSE | NOT SURE | |
| ALL | 84% | 7% | 9% |
| Men | 82% | 10% | 8% |
| Women | 86% | 4% | 10% |
| DEMOCRATS | 88% | 5% | 7% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 80% | 9% | 11% |
| White | 83% | 8% | 9% |
| Black | 86% | 5% | 9% |
| Hispanic | 84% | 6% | 10% |
| Other | 85% | 6% | 9% |
| 18-29 | 88% | 4% | 8% |
| 30-44 | 87% | 5% | 8% |
| 45-59 | 83% | 8% | 9% |
| 60+ | 80% | 10% | 10% |
| Nova | 86% | 6% | 8% |
| REST | 82% | 8% | 10% |
| QUESTION: Is the issue of health care very important, somewhat important, or not important when you vote? | |||
| VERY | SOME | NOT | |
| ALL | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Men | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Women | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| DEMOCRATS | 52% | 43% | 5% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| White | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Black | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Hispanic | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Other | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| 18-29 | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| 30-44 | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| 45-59 | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| 60+ | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Nova | 51% | 43% | 6% |
| REST | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| QUESTION: If Congress does not pass a public health insurance option as part of health care reform, will that make you more likely or less likely to vote for Democrats in the 2010 general election or would it have no real effect on your vote? | |||
| MORE | LESS | NO EFFECT | |
| ALL | 6% | 46% | 48% |
| Men | 7% | 44% | 49% |
| Women | 5% | 48% | 47% |
| DEMOCRATS | 5% | 49% | 46% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 7% | 43% | 50% |
| White | 6% | 45% | 49% |
| Black | 4% | 49% | 47% |
| Hispanic | 5% | 47% | 48% |
| Other | 5% | 48% | 47% |
| 18-29 | 4% | 49% | 47% |
| 30-44 | 5% | 48% | 47% |
| 45-59 | 7% | 44% | 49% |
| 60+ | 7% | 44% | 49% |
| Nova | 4% | 50% | 46% |
| REST | 8% | 42% | 50% |
| QUESTION: If Congress does not pass a public option as part of health care reform, will that make you more likely or less likely to vote in the 2010 general election, or no effect? | |||
| MORE | LESS | NO EFFECT | |
| ALL | 8% | 43% | 49% |
| Men | 9% | 41% | 50% |
| Women | 7% | 45% | 48% |
| DEMOCRATS | 7% | 46% | 47% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 9% | 40% | 51% |
| White | 8% | 42% | 50% |
| Black | 5% | 48% | 47% |
| Hispanic | 7% | 44% | 49% |
| Other | 7% | 45% | 48% |
| 18-29 | 6% | 47% | 47% |
| 30-44 | 7% | 44% | 49% |
| 45-59 | 9% | 41% | 50% |
| 60+ | 8% | 41% | 51% |
| Nova | 7% | 44% | 49% |
| REST | 9% | 42% | 49% |
| QUESTION: As you may have heard, one proposal in Congress is to pass the public health insurance option, but offer states the opportunity to "opt out" of it. Before the election for Governor, Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds said he would side with conservatives and push for Virginia to "opt out" of the public insurance plan. Did this make you more excited or less excited to vote in this year's election, or did it have no impact? | |||
| MORE | LESS | NO IMPACT | |
| ALL | 6% | 41% | 53% |
| Men | 6% | 40% | 54% |
| Women | 6% | 42% | 52% |
| DEMOCRATS | 4% | 45% | 51% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 8% | 37% | 55% |
| White | 6% | 40% | 54% |
| Black | 3% | 45% | 52% |
| Hispanic | 5% | 43% | 52% |
| Other | 4% | 43% | 53% |
| 18-29 | 4% | 45% | 51% |
| 30-44 | 5% | 43% | 52% |
| 45-59 | 7% | 39% | 54% |
| 60+ | 6% | 40% | 54% |
| Nova | 5% | 42% | 53% |
| REST | 7% | 40% | 53% |
| SAMPLE FIGURES | |||
| Men | 351 | 44% | |
| Women | 449 | 56% | |
| White | 495 | 62% | |
| Black | 249 | 31% | |
| Hispanic | 33 | 4% | |
| Other | 23 | 3% | |
| 18-29 | 121 | 15% | |
| 30-44 | 223 | 28% | |
| 45-59 | 265 | 33% | |
| 60+ | 191 | 24% | |
| Nova | 417 | 52% | |
| Rest | 383 | 48% | |